The Long and Winding Road for Democracy in Egypt Part 6

Part 6: Dark Comedy of Egyptian Presidential Race

It’s been believed by some analysts that the current Republican race for the Presidential candidate in 2012 is quite filled with satire and jokes due to the candidates inability to attract the masses or provide any viable solutions for the current American economic crisis or provide a vision for America’s future. All of those analysts would have thought twice before professing their thoughts if they have been following the current race for presidency in Egypt. The race for presidency has turned from political race into a dark comedy possibly of the worst type.



Since 1954 and the establishment of the Republic in Egypt by Gamal Abdel Nasser only 4 presidents ever took power of Middle East biggest and oldest country. They are General Mohamed Naguib, Gamal Abdel Nasser, Mohamed Anwar El Sadat and Hosni Mubarak respectively. The Duration for presidency varied from each president starting from only one and half year for President Naguib to approximately 30 years for Mubarak.
The Egyptian political system never allowed contesting for the presidential elections but it was an authoritarian system based on the president who is always of military background. The coup d’état of 1952 that ousted the King Farouk (Last king of Egypt) made sure that the upcoming rulers will be of military backgrounds. The only change happened after the ousted president Mubarak declaration in 2005 for the first multi-candidates elections which Mubarak unsurprisingly won by a landslide against other contestants 2 of them were well known like Dr. Ayman Nour of El Ghad party and Dr. Numan Gomaa of the WAFD party both who didn’t achieve a fraction of the percentage of Mubarak 88% landslide win. Of course like almost all elections post 1952 the rigging of the votes was prevalent in the 2005. But in 2012 the scene is completely different and here are the most prominent candidates in the upcoming election.

Dr. Mohamed El Baradei (Now Withdrawn) 



Former UN Nuclear watchdog and Peace Nobel Prize Laureate and Egypt’s most prominent former diplomat were the front runner of all presidential polls post the revolution. However his Boy Scout attitude and declarations never really impressed the majority of Egyptians among them even his most ardent fans and supporters. Dr. El Baradei, since day one was close to the revolutionaries but never close enough to make the necessary impact for change in the Egyptian politics and Egyptian society. Dr. El Baradei always wanted the people to move first and then he would move but he failed to understand that the revolutionaries needed him as a leader and not a follower. His Boy Scout attitude and sometimes distancing himself from the actual work on the ground was a factor in fueling criticism against him.
Even worse, he was falsely accused of all forms of accusations and being involved in conspiracies against Egypt mostly false by his closest associates. It is a fact that most of the Islamists and socialists who were competing to shake his hands and take group photographs with him backstabbed him badly at the first chance and also a significant number of Liberals were alienated from his programs and started to act as staunch opponents for his views which led to his early withdrawal from the race. Dr. El Baradei claimed that the conditions and the bad management of the transitional point by SCAF as well as the unclear conditions and regulations of the presidential race are the real reasons behind his surprising withdrawal.

It remains to be said, that the viable plan presented by El Baradei in the early days post the revolution was the most convenient and practical than anything proposed by all the factions in the Egyptian political spectrum.
However, the Supreme council of Armed Forces (SCAF) ignored that plan and enforced their own road map based mainly on articles actually proposed by former President Mubarak. The days have proven that El Baradei was right on most of the issues he stood for and should SCAF generals have listened to what he said earlier, situation in Egypt would have been completely different and possibly much better.
Dr. El Baradei may have helped ignite the revolution by his homecoming from Austria in 2009 and was part of the initial movement of the 18 day revolution but his performance lacked severely in the days after the revolution and a lot of his statements were incoherent and out of touch from the pace of the events. Despite the above Dr. El Baradei still he represents a true and an immaculate icon of the revolution and if it wasn’t for him and people like him the Egyptian revolution won’t have taken place.

Dr. Mohamed Selim Al Awa



Originally a prominent Islamic thinker and writer who became famous in the past decade being deputy to Egyptian/Qatari Sheikh prominent Youssef Al Qardawi. El Qardawi who became household name in the Arab world through his weekly TV show on Al Jazeerah News Network, helped El Awa of becoming a better known name in the media. Dr. Al Awa and Qardawi founded the International association for Islamic scholars which they founded in an attempt to spread the belief and the moderate Islamic values across the world according to their views.
Mr. Al Awa was not a very prominent name in the political scene but in the Islamic scholars scene and that is prevalent in his statements which usually seem very uncalculated and sometimes preposterous   like the time he called upon Egyptian authorities to search all the churches for presumed illegal weapons and accused the church institution of arming up to protect their own Coptic interests. That statement stirred the anger of the Copts and even most Muslims in Egypt as well as his continuous attempts to appease SCAF generals at the expense of the rebels and activists, never really helped with his popularity. All these attempts didn’t earn him much respect on the broad spectrum. His only chance now was to get an endorsement from the Muslim Brotherhood who mentioned that they will not support any candidate with Islamic affiliation but as we have seen before that can be just a test balloon to show that they are unbiased towards their own ideology but that is yet to be seen in reality.

Dr. Abdel Moneim Abou El Fottoh



An Ex Muslim Brotherhood leader who has been a prominent figure within the ranks of the once Muslim Brotherhood which is still in fact banned by Egyptian law however, they managed to construct their first political party Freedom and Justice Party. Abou El Fottoh lied already about leaving the Muslim Brotherhood and admitted recently that he never left the group and only distanced himself from them to avoid embarrassing the group leaders who vowed not to present any presidential candidate in the early days post the revolution or support an Islamist candidate in the upcoming elections.
Despite his relatively moderate stance on most issues especially social issues unlike most other Islamists which appealed to a broader spectrum of Egyptians including liberals, it’s safe to assert that Egyptian liberals who think that they are saving the revolution by voting for Abou El Fottoh are actually writing the revolution obituary. Since this will only mean that the Muslim brotherhood group will have the final say in any political decision on the long term future and thus ending the revolutionary ideals that thousands have paid their lives and thousands others injured to uphold.

Voting for Dr. Abou El Fottouh or any other Islamist candidate will mean that Muslim Brotherhood will be equal to AIPAC in USA; they will control whoever is in charge in the future. Liberals cannot allow this to happen because what will result in the upcoming elections and constitution writing is likely to rule the Egyptian political spectrum for decades to come. This doesn’t only apply on him but also as a general rule against any candidate that will be introduced by the Political Islam prominent group. Their influence and power will only grow further in case they manage to successfully push a candidate to the presidency seat.

Mr. Hamdeen Sabahy



Head and founder of the Karama party and a hard-core leftist Nasserite, Sabahy has been involved in the Egyptian political movement since his youth in the 1970s and till now. He was one of the staunchest adversaries of the Mubarak’s regime and his newspaper “El Karama” which stands for “The Dignity” was a strong opposition newspaper during Mubarak’s reign.

Sabahy may appeal to a certain sector of the Egyptian community but his hard-core socialist and anti-American/Israeli rhetoric which seems to be synonymous of the same rhetoric used by late President Abdel Nasser in the 1950’s and 60’s. He and apparently many of the Socialists in Egypt can’t seem to break out of that ancient rhetoric or find a more modern message for the Egyptian public other than the holy quests to liberate Jerusalem or what they call the Zionist/American conspiracy against Egypt.

The prevailing message of Sabahy’s is composed of conspiracies and how he will protect Egypt from the vultures who want to ruin, divide and destroy the Egyptian nation. While that rhetoric may still appealing to some pan-Arab nationalists and few others, Mr. Sabahy rhetoric if not toned down and matured a bit might lead Egypt to conflicts if not wars with its neighbors in any given day , if he is ever to be president. He maybe an honest and good willed politician but certainly his radical socialist and pan-Arab rhetoric is becoming less appealing to the masses recently especially it’s the year 2012 and not 1962!!

Mrs. Bothaina Kamel 



She is the only female presidential candidate and for the first time in modern Egyptian history a women actually is a contender for this post. Mrs.Kamel is a former prominent Radio and TV host and one of the true revolutionary figures amongst the current candidates. She has been very active before and past the January 25^th revolution and also a staunch supporter of women rights and the total reform of Egypt. Her chances to win are not great judging by the current conservative sentiment in Egypt but still have more chances in the future and this current presidential campaign might make her a better known name for Egyptians in future presidential races. Mrs. Kamel staunch support for the Tahrir rebels might alienate some Egyptians who are still conservative or reject the actions of those rebels and that might not work in her favour in any upcoming elections. Yet she is a very open minded and cultured lady who will remain one of the icons of the January revolution despite the outcome of the elections.

Dr. Ahmed Shafiq



Tainted by his older friendship and relationship with the former president Mubarak, Lieutenant General Ahmed Shafiq former 3 weeks Prime Minister and former Minister of Civil Aviation represents a dilemma in the eyes of the political analysts. He was the first Prime minister to submit his resignation since 1952 and he did that just after 3 weeks of his appointment by Mubarak during the first few days of the revolution and who was ousted by the time her turned his resignation. Yet that appointment by Mubarak and some miscalculated statements have turned him into the rebels’ enemy Number 1.

The fact he was a former minister under Mubarak’s regime cannot take the man’s achievement in the field of Civil Aviation and the complete overhaul to the national Airline Egypt Air and the airports in Egypt after decades of neglect and transforming them within a few years to meet international standards for both the airline and Egyptian airports. His managerial skills are impeccable and though his opponents have accused him of corruption but none of the accusations actually were proven as much as many others against former regime figures.

The man chances to be a president exists especially he received a nationwide sympathy being harshly criticized by famous Egyptian novelist Dr. Alaa Al Aswany on air while being in office and as a result to the man who remained calm against all of the accusations despite being a successful minister and a war hero, he quit his job next day. Dr. Al Aswany criticism and demand for the resignation of Shafiq may have worked but it backfired when Dr. Shafiq received a nationwide sympathy for his respectful attitude, despite what Dr. Al Aswany did would have been completely normal in a democratic country. Dr. Shafiq remains to be an important contender in the upcoming elections in spite of all odds because many in Egypt believe that he unjustly paid the price for things he didn’t do himself.

Mr. Amr Moussa



In a similar manner to Lieutenant General Dr. Ahmed Shafiq, former top diplomat and former Secretary General of the Arab league Amr Moussa years working as a Foreign Affairs Minister in the 1990’s still stains his record among many rebels and Egyptians in general . Yet, the man strong character during his time in office still leaves a good memory in the minds of most Egyptians. The withdrawal of Dr. El Baradei certainly boosts his chances in the upcoming elections. Mr. Moussa eloquent speeches and confidence as well as a moderate stance provide him of a stronger edge over the rest. Also he is an Egyptian household name and well known for being a serious politician and diplomat despite lacking decisiveness on many international and domestic issues. However, the man’s capability of talking himself out of most sticky situations as well as his vast array of international connections and good relations with world renowned politicians which might help him to achieve both domestic approval as well as international one. That quality in Moussa may be the key to his success in next elections and not forgetting his cordial relationships with SCAF as well as all the powers that be in Egypt and the region. There are a lot of drawbacks in Moussa being the man in power in Egypt among them. He is old school, a former Nasserite though not a radical in any way and also was part of the former regime even in small way. However, he is still a front runner in this race despite all of the above.

Mr. Hisham El Bastaweesy



Honourabe Judge Mr. Hisham El Bastaweesy became a household name in the judiciary system being a staunch opponent against the Mubarak regime continuous interference and influence on the judiciary system. He and Judge Ahmed Mekky led a campaign within the Egyptian judges for the complete separation of authorities and the complete independence of the Egyptian judiciary system from the influence of the executive authority. His attempts failed but mustered a huge support for his cause and he is still pressing heavily for that noble goal to be achieved. His decision to run for President is still unclear at the moment since he declared his willingness to do that , yet there is no official campaign or declaration to back that fact. His chances are not exceptionally great judging by the short period remaining for the upcoming election but he can be allying himself with one of the candidates to become a vice president who might receive a good approval from the Egyptians who perceive the judge in high esteem due to his noble deeds before and after the revolution.
Mr. Hazem Abou Ismail


Also known as “Bikini Hunter”, “Al Qaida Candidate” and “Evil Santa” the radical Salafi missionary and cleric presidential candidate reflects a lot of what’s happening in the Egyptian political spectrum. His sudden rise from obscurity to a controversial ultra-conservative political figure in the political scene comes as a surprise to a man who almost literally spent his entire life in the boundaries of his mosque. Despite being an engineer, his political, economical and social knowledge seems to be severely lacking for a man who wishes to be a politician let alone the president of the biggest and oldest country in the Middle East. Unlike most of the other candidates who have their pros and cons, it’s hard to be to find any advantages in this particular candidate. His extremist views even led him to support Osama Bin Laden blatantly in his many speeches.
Even more surprising, he seems to be getting more airtime on TV shows and talk shows than almost all of the other candidates combined which seems to be quite bizarre just by the fact he is shown in the same channels that criticizes his ideology and ideas. He is becoming a more figure of controversy and till the moment he is declaring some of the most preposterous statements about minorities, liberals and everyone. The man seems to be ranting and insists on forcing head veil (Hijab) on women, even going further saying that any woman not accepting should leave the faith as if the faith is his own private property whereby he lets people in and out. The man keeps his continuous insanity spree by going to the former terrorist organization The Islamic Group “EL Gamaa Al Islamiya” and started to make emotional speeches and cried about what happened to the members of the terrorist group in regard of their ill treatment in prisons during Mubarak Era. The man who promises to increase Egypt’s GDP to 200 Trillion ( Approximately 13 times the national GDP of USA) represents a clear and present danger on the Egyptian democracy movement should he finds himself by some miracle in the presidential seat there is no political analyst that can really predict the far of Egypt on his hands. Luckily that is still highly unlikely but not entirely impossible.
Other Notable and rumoured candidates:

1.  Dr. Ayman Nour : Head of New Ghad Party
2. General Hosam Khairallah : Former Egyptian Intelligence officer and deputy chief to Egypt’s top spy Mr. Omar Soliman ex chief of EGID
3. Dr. Mohamed Fawzy : Former police officer and lawyer
4. Dr. Nabil Al Arabi: Current secretary general of Arab league
5. Dr. Mansour Hassan: Former Sadat era minister and head of the political council formed by SCAF
6. Mr. Khaled Ali: Youngest candidate and socialist activist
7. Dr. Abdel Allah El Ashaal : former diplomat and political analyst
8. Mr. Mamdouh Kotb: Former head of Egyptian Intelligence who just announced his candidacy very recently

Conclusion:
It’s noteworthy that a significant number of average Egyptians are hardly convinced entirely about any of the candidates due to the obvious weaknesses and mostly lack of experience manifested in all of the candidates.
Democracy is a truly tricky game that unfortunately still many Egyptians fail to grasp. One can’t blame them since 1952 no clear form of democracy has been actually established. But it’s a learning process and the longer Egyptian get involved in the political life the more experienced and better candidates will appear and will be voted for in the upcoming years. Still many Egyptians fail to understand that the next presidents will also the High commander of the army and all Egypt’s political and strategic moves will be on his shoulders. It’s not enough that someone might like a certain candidate but he has to imagine them to be in the place of power. Th is a country and not sports club elections.
Voting for a presidential candidate of Muslim Brotherhood or even supported by them gives the group an everlasting power and legitimacy over the political spectrum for years to come.
For Islamists, they are on a mission to accomplish the complete overtaking of Egypt after huge successes in both lower and upper house elections. The latter most liberal parties boycotted already since they claim that it’s not important despite the fact that both houses of parliament will be part of the constitutional writing committee and surrendering the upper house seats to Islamist will prove to be another fatal mistake for the liberals among the long list of mistakes post the revolution.

Unfortunately, liberals’ best hope in the upcoming elections might be voting for an older regime figure but one who is not too stained with corruption or tyranny like Amr Moussa or Ahmed Shafiq. Liberals are still scattered and still adopting sometimes trivial causes and leaving the scene entirely for Islamists and their allies to take a grip on the future of Egypt.

They now should be in a mission for damage control and from there they should build the future elections and presence. The liberal camp need a good reshuffle and to lick their own wounds and start preparing for the future elections with more capable candidates. There are few Egyptian Liberals that can see beyond the shining objects and admit that there is no serious contender that represents the liberal values in Egypt at this stage. However, that is not an excuse for them to vote for any candidate that represents the opposing side just because he/she doesn’t seem too extremist.

Most importantly for liberals to remember that if you can’t find the food you like you can’t starve yourself to death. The same applies to the presidential elections!

The Long and Winding Road for Democracy in Egypt Part 5

Part 5 :Egypt: The Wild Wild East

 

Armed robberies, organized crime, assaults on banks and money transport vehicles, grand auto thefts, murders, massive riots, kidnappings, ransoms, arson, biker-gangs, vandalism and lately a massive massacre committed by some fanatical supports of a football team against their opponents killing around 79 people and injuring around 1300; most of whom were from the guest team.

These incidents are now happening in Egypt a country well known for peace and safety of its streets through most of its modern history. This is certainly not the case post January 25 revolution in Egypt.

The country is sliding into a fierce slope of violence and counter-violence.

 

Yet, luckily enough the fire hasn’t spread all through, most streets in Egypt seem to be safe enough in daily life. But these incidents tarnish the general image of long hailed feeling of safety in Egypt . The life patterns of most Egyptians seemed to be changing gradually.

It used to be safe to wander and walk in Egyptian streets even in crowded cities like Cairo and Alexandria post midnight without fear of muggings , kidnappings, petty thefts. The situation might not be completely dire at the moment, but it certainly can get there.

The lawlessness and inability of both the Egyptian police force supported by units of the Military police to control the streets and uphold the hold the way it used to before the revolution.

It will be unjust to call the situation per-revolution entirely safe . However, the skyrocketing crime rates after the revolution are alarming. Egypt seem to be staggering in a complete contradiction to what seemed to be one of the most peaceful revolutions in history.

The reasons of this lawlessness seem to be numerous and despite the increasing efforts to regroup the disintegrated police force and replacing the minister of interior three times since last year, the quality of security in the country seems to be severely lacking.

There are many elements leading to the continuous state of lawlessness in Egypt over the past few months. Among them the prime is smaller number of security troops compared to the large population of Egypt; estimated 85 million especially in the Metropolises like Cairo and Alexandria.

Another reason for the chaos is the complacency of many police officers many of whom feel that they are disrespected by the public and media; for their role in the killing of activists and rebels during the 18 days of the revolution and violent clashes that followed in many areas around the country.

Also the number of prisoners who escaped before and after the revolution and haven’t been caught yet is representing a clear and present danger on the Egyptian society.

More people and even those not flagged as thugs are joining that marauding force of violence due the economic difficulties post of the revolution. Should the economic situation not improve soon and if the government will not address this critical issue, the security situation will deteriorate even further in the upcoming months.

A significant percentage of the general public now is less than cooperative or totally uncooperative with the police force and breaking all sorts of laws in their daily lives as a sign of their newly acquired freedom.

Of course this abuse of hard gained freedom will only lead to further increase the state of insecurity and the lawlessness.

It’s not uncommon these days in Cairo to see cars traveling on the opposite ways, people parking across the road, street vendors occupying the entire pedestrian pavement and these are the minor acts of violating the law. Others turned to classical crime acts to earn a living and robberies and armed thefts on banks, retailers, supermarkets and shops are increasing drastically in the past few months.

Over 18,000 vehicles were reported stolen during the past year with large numbers of petty thefts, armed robberies and murders also reported. This is not counting the huge number of seizure of state owned lands by locals and many other facets of crime.

The new Minister of Interior, Mohamed Ibrahim, has shown some progress in the security status and managed due to his continuous hands on administration of the ministry to restore the lost security, but it seems that his own officers and forces have failed him miserably in several occasions particularly the infamous and tragic Port Said Stadium massacre of Al Ahly football club fans.

Also his handling of the disaster and its aftermath seemed to be similar to his predecessors.

The massacre represents the latest chapter of violence in Egypt. Fans of Port Said based El Masry football club attacked a smaller group of football fans belonging to Egyptian title holders Al Ahly in a way that appeared like marauding hordes in historical movies.

 

Attacking the Ahly Fans after a game that Masry controversially won but it was a surprising victory after all against the African giants Al Ahly. Despite this fact,  Al Masry fans stormed the pitch with knives, clubs and metal rods and assaulted the fans in what seemed to many as a premeditated murder spree killing 79 according to last official body count and injuring around 1300 of Ahly fans who found themselves trapped without any protection from the police or central security forces units.

The entire massacre was broadcasted live on air displaying the most shocking events of Egypt’s recent memory. What made things worse, was the fact that the exit gates around the stadium were sealed from outside resulting in the increase of fatalities and injuries due to the stampede and suffocation of the victims.

The security forces were in shambles and completely incompetent to the extent that some analysts accuse the Police force and central security forces being a part of a plot against Al Ahly club Ultras by remaining entirely complacent during the events and failed to secure the Ahly fans.

Some people believed that is part of the payback from the police against the Al Ahly Ultras who were side other clubs like Zamalek ultras as are components of the rebels of the Egyptian revolution.

Maybe this theory is far stretched but the aftermath of the massacre reflected that many others believe the ministry of interior in downtown Cairo and less than 1 Km from Tahrir square was surrounded by angry protestors and rioters who accused the police forces of orchestrating a setup for the Ahly fans and being an accomplice with Al Masry club ultras and other thugs who attacked their supporters in Port Said.

Al Ahly being the biggest club in the country and the African club of the century have a huge fan base in Egypt and in the Arab world estimated to be over 70 million fans, hence the anger was doubled in the hearts of millions from what seemed to be total incompetence from the police.

The results of the clashes in Mansour street around the Ministry of Interior is about 12 dead and over 1000 injured. This was the last straw for many of the rebels and severed all ties of faith in the Supreme council of the armed forces and the revolutionary forces all together.

The continuous tendency for violence is still a clear and present danger in the months post the Egyptian revolution and the security situation is still taking a sharp downturn. This situation could escalate in the upcoming months if more stringent, efficient and forceful measures aren’t implemented immediately by the government and SCAF.

Moreover, adding salt to the wounds is the incredible number of weapons smuggled almost on daily basis from the borders of Libya, Sudan and Gaza (Palestine). Though admittingly both the police and army have spared no effort in trying to capture the weapon smugglers across the borders, there is still room for a lot more to be done.

The number of handguns, automatic rifles and even light machine guns have already found their way into Egyptian borders are terrifyingly alarming for any society seeking a peaceful living. More efforts to curb the booming illegal weapons trade in the Egyptian society is needed now in order to put an end to the current vicious circle of violence.

Furthermore, a total revamp for the police forces mentality is required at the moment. The Egyptian police departments and law enforcement units requires the utilization of the expertise of trainers from western countries like Germany and United Kingdom to train the new cadets and even ranked officers for the latest and most efficient ways of handling riots and dealing with crime and criminals, along with other facets of policing activities that seem missing in the current police creed.

The Egyptian law enforcement requires a new code of ethics that maintains human rights and dignities while being effective enough in curbing lawlessness, violence and upholding the law.

Police reform process might take years, but it has to start now. To restore the long lost feeling of security among Egyptians and foreigners visiting or living in Egypt alike.

That old sense of security has been shattered and more Egyptians are accusing the revolution being the cause of that though that might not be true. Since the complacency of the law enforcement units, government as well as the abuse of the freedoms led to the current state of anarchy which must be fought by every law abiding Egyptian in order to pave the way for the economic, social and political processes in the near future.

Despite all of the above Egypt is by no means a jungle and not even near that status, but the current state of security requires huge efforts from all, most importantly the general public awareness that the chaos they create by breaking laws on daily basis is adding to the problem and it will have a backlash on their daily lives in the long run.

Egyptians have to cooperate more closely with the police officers and law enforcement units who should step up their efforts in order to restore the security that Egypt was well know for in the past.

The Long and Winding Road for Democracy in Egypt Part 4

 

Part 4 : January 25 (2011-12): Year in life of Egyptian Revolution

 

Today the 25^th of January 2012 marks the first anniversary of glorious revolution.  The revolution which took the world by storm and achieving an unprecedented global enthusiasm and attention due to its peaceful nature.  Yet after a year from that revolution things are not what every freedom fighter in Egypt and around the world hoped for.  The number of problems of the post revolution period is increasing rapidly without viable solutions either from government of the Military Junta in charge (SCAF)

 

Two achievements were reached so far by Egyptians after a year of struggles post their glorious Jan 25^th revolution. They can be summarized in the Public trials of ousted president Hosni Mubarak and his regime. Secondly, the election of relatively free parliament despite the way the Islamists managed to acquire the majority of the seats in the parliament.  While both achievements seemingly great and could have been quite farfetched under the previous regime, they fall very short in regard of the great aspirations of the Egyptian people in the aftermath of one of the greatest peaceful revolutions of modern history.

The Egyptian revolution triggered a massive wave of protests in the middle east and worldwide. Never since the fall of the Berlin’s wall in 1989 had a political movement this impact on a global scale. Its impact can be felt as far from Cold squares of Moscow, Russia all the way to the Occupy Wall Street movement in USA and from streets of London to the small towns of Nigeria. Yes, the Egyptian revolution had that impact. It’s the most televised revolution and political event in history. The entire world held its breath for those 18 glorious days that proceeded the fall of one of the oldest dictators in the Middle East on Feb 11^th 2011

The ever changing Egyptian Cabinet

This far reached success and worldwide impact didn’t reflect on the daily lives on the very Egyptians who created that great revolution. A year passed and only the head of the state changed with some of his sidekicks. Now Egypt prime minister is a former prime minister during the regime of Mubarak Dr. Kamal El Ganzoury . The former regime prime minister of the late 1990s and is the man who was accused of being responsible for the beginning of the most vicious corruption wave and whose succeeded by Dr. Atef Ebeid who is behind some of the worst corruption cases in modern Egyptian history.

The appointment of Ganzoury is the third change of cabinet in one year as the first change occurred during the first 18 days of revolution from Dr. Ahmed Nazief (Currently in Jail) to Dr. Ahmed Shafiq. Then a second change from Dr. Ahmed Shafiq to Dr. Essam Sharaf . The former was shunned by the rebels in Tahrir being one of the closest figures of former president Mubarak despite Shafiq’s good administrational capabilities. He was replaced by one of the pro-revolution figures Dr. Essam Sharraf and despite that Sharraf was also a minister during Mubarak era for a few months but his stance of being a pro-revolution led to him being picked by the Tahrir revolutionaries as a new prime minister. He was even sworn in Tahrir in an unprecedented event that was unmatched in any country.

However, the love was soon lost between the rebels and Sharraf and soon the same people who carried him literally on their shoulders in Tahrir celebrating his appointment as prime minister are the ones who were out for his blood for what they believed to be his role in curbing the efforts of change in the country and derailing from the path of the revolution. The third change occurred based on popular demanded when it seemed impossible to have Dr. Sharraf anymore as a prime minister and he was replaced by the 78 year old Dr. El Ganzoury who managed to take matters with a firmer hand in the few first days than his predecessor. Dr  Sharraf. Dr. El Ganzoury managed to try to appease the rebels by some economical measures including increasing the minimum wage up to 700 Egyptian pounds equivalent (115 dollars/Month) which is still below the minimum necessity for any working Egyptian to acquire a decent standard of living.

The effect of his economical decisions are yet to be seen since the turbulent political situation is still overshadowing any progress made in trying to contain the economical damage that hit the Egyptian society and economy. The progress is hindered by both Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF) controversial decisions and the incidents on the ground with the endless protests, strikes and sit-ins that has paralyzed a large chunk of the Egyptian economy.

Egyptian daily life post Revolution

SCAF being in charge for over a year have failed in tackling most if not all the problems facing the aftermath of the revolution. Starting from the security issues in the Egyptian street, which are still witnessing some improvements lately though not enough for Egyptians to feel the difference and ending with economical and political issues.   Most of these problems have reflected the inapt leadership of SCAF in handling even the most basic problems like providing gas cylinders to the common Egyptians who rely on it for heating and cooking especially in the cold winter times.

The issues of Security have in turn affected the tourism revenues which constitute about 20% – 25% of the Egyptian annual GDP and also contribute a large sum of Egypt’s hard currency. The unemployment rates resulting from the decrease of tourism revenue have led that Egypt is seeking to borrow again from the IMF. An Idea that SCAF and Egyptian government rejected in the early days following the revolution but now seeking that loan with much harsher conditions from the IMF.

The human rights haven’t improved either especially for a revolution that was ignited by the lack of these rights. Actually, the number of military tribunals, torture incidents, curbing of freedom of speech have increased more than they did during the days of Mubarak.

 12,000 Egyptians have face military tribunals despite their status as civilians and while just one day before the celebrations 1956 were released from imprisonment including prominent blogger Maikel Nabil. It was really hard, for those who fought for their freedom and ousting a dictator to be put on military tribunals and being brought to military justice while the dictator is given the courtesy of a civilian public trial . The lack of communication and freedom of information between SCAF and regular Egyptians have led to further complications in the society.

Security, Human Rights and Economic Issues

A society that used to be much more cohesive is now torn between usually limited amount of sectarian violence between extremist Islamic groups and Christians. Also on political levels the Islamists who gained a majority in rather controversial  parliamentary election are fighting a vicious war against liberals who lost a lot of ground in the former elections but still steadfast on fighting for human rights against the tyranny of the military and the Islamist forces like Salafis.

The society seems to be deeply wounded in terms of its cohesiveness after the revolution. The revolution path is still bumpy and hard and while the hard-core rebels are still determined to fight the good fight for real freedom, it will not be an easy battle for them and they can either lose it or win it but they don’t seem to back down and vowed to liberate Egypt from all the traces of tyranny that started by the 1952 coup d’état and still going on till this day.

The military despite all its faults have the hard task of keeping this society functional and stable before handing in the power to a civilian authority by June 30^th 2012 but that is easier said than done. They showed some good gestures by partly annulling the Emergency law that governed the Egyptian state for the past 30 years in the aftermath of late President Sadat’s assassination and till now.  In a speech by Field Marshall Tantawi Defense minister and head of SCAF, he declared the cancellation of the law and restricting its usage in cases of thuggery and vandalism which still opens the door for further abuses by the police and the Military police against civilians.

At the same time, one can’t blame them entirely for trying to curb the thuggery incidents taking place randomly in many areas around the country. Yet this law has been around for decades and never really helped to curb on thugs the way people hoped for. So other tactics should be in order now to restore the serenity and sense of security Egyptians need to feel.

The Economic downturn must be battled as Egypt is losing huge revenues from the new foreign investments as well as tourism revenue throughout the past year. New laws giving incentives for foreign and local investors should be implemented to help the country that lost over 40% of its Central Bank national reserves to recuperate.

Political clashes and Constitutional Dilemma

The issue of writing the constitution is still the elephant in the room for all political debates in the country and represents a real headache for SCAF and liberals who don’t want the Islamist majority parliament to control the committee writing this constitution. This is a direct manifestation of the horrendous mistake committed by SCAF political consultants that resulted in a constitutional declaration stating that the new parliament will elect 100 committee members to write the constitution. Thus rendering the new Egyptian constitution to be a trophy for the parliament majority winner and of course it was the Islamists who won the majority in the parliament. They used the most divisive and sectarian political propaganda in Egyptian political history which contradicts with the Egyptian constitution and law.

Yet it was strangely overlooked by SCAF and all the country authorities during these controversial elections. It’s expected that they will also win the upper house elections “Shurra” Council starting Jan 29^th since the major Liberal coalition The Egyptian Bloc have withdrawn from participating in protest against the elections violations from Islamists and the lack of law application on them according to Egyptian bloc press statement .

The accusations to SCAF deal with the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafis to hand those the Parliament in exchange for the Presidency position to be for a SCAF allied candidate are very common now in all political circles. This allegation certainly seems to have a good degree of truth in it which has been proven by the friendly behavior of SCAF towards Islamists contrary to their Liberal counterparts.

One year after the revolution, the Egyptians are still in a transitional point and while they achieved some marginal victories throughout the past year, the battle for freedom is far from over in what seems to be now quite an exhausted and ideologically divided society. The need for a certain degree of unity couldn’t be more important at anytime than now if Egyptians are willing to pass this delicate stage to safety.

The tensions among all the factions must cease to exist for a while and the constitution writing must be done with all the Egyptian society representatives being part of it and not just the majority winners. Otherwise, the consequences will be catastrophic for the country and the region. The country needs a period of healing and coordination of all efforts to achieve the noble revolution goals and that can’t be achieved overnight for certain. That requires an immediate action and coordination of all powers to reach an agreement on the next phase of Egypt’s short and long term future plans while maintaining the human rights and personal freedoms of every Egyptian.

 Any other solution will have catastrophic repercussions on the country’s future.  Egyptians need to make peace with their past, present and future in order to step forward for a much needed progress.

 

Ending this article, one would usually use a great quote from a great philosopher or leader but it seems more appropriate to use a part of an inspirational speech used by the legendary actor Al Pacino in his great sports movie Any Given Sunday. “All comes down to today, and either, we heal as a team, or we’re gonna crumble. Inch by inch, play by play. Until we’re finished. … We’re in hell right now and either, we heal, now, as a team, or we will die as individuals”

The Long and Winding Road for Democracy in Egypt Part 3

Part 3 Seven Deadly Sins of SCAF

 

Despite the highly praised performance of the Egyptian army in the 18 days of the revolution, the Supreme Council of Armed forces (SCAF) have managed to commit some of the worst mistakes that can be made in a post-revolution transitional period.  Some even would go as far to believe that even Egypt’s worst enemies couldn’t have done worse to the country during the transitional period if they were in charge.
While the army cannot be denied of their goodwill in some of the post revolution events, their actions have been in many cases tainted by a great some of questionability towards their real goals and agendas.
The old proverb  “The road to hell is paved with good intentions” does manifest itself completely in the way SCAF handled the transitional period post the ousting of the former . The fact that the army officers are a group of patriots who fought for the country through several wars and were victorious during the glorious war of 1973 is unquestionable. Therefore, the question of their integrity and patriotism should be off the table. SCAF members have been fighting for this country and maintained the security of its border before over 60% of the current population of Egypt was actually born.
However, while SCAF adopted initially the revolution ideals and supported the ousting of Mubarak thus gaining popularity within both the rebels and mainstream Egyptians alike, they committed a large number of political sins throughout the post revolution period that effectively have crippled the revolutionary process of change.
In Christianity exists seven deadly sins that a human should avoid committing wrath, greed, sloth (laziness), pride, lust, envy, and gluttony. While SCAF have not literally committed the above mentioned sins, they have committed their counterparts politically during the transitional period that was supposed to pass peacefully should the general internationally known guidelines of any democratic transitional period were applied and they are: a constitution followed by a Parliamentary and presidential elections. Yet the political sins of SCAF have made this seemingly easier path looks much harder now and lead to the current state of agitation among all Egyptians.
The political sins committed by SCAF can be described as follows:

Diversion:

From the very first day in power, SCAF have utilized the old colonial tactic of divide and conquer.  Initially, while declaring the military junta full support of the demands of the revolution, they managed to stall the implementation of the demands of the rebels of a new constitution and the complete fair trial of the key figures of the old regime.
The constitution writing process seemed to be a dilemma to implement in the eyes of SCAF and instead of opting for a rational call for the  establishment of a committee to write the new constitution, SCAF proposed the most controversial proposal that led eventually to the biggest diversion in opinions in Egyptian recent history.
Instead of a new constitution, they proposed a constitutional declaration of 9 articles that limits the power and the number of presidential terms in Egypt and called for a general referendum about it.  These 9 articles were proposed by the notorious Counselour Tarek El Bishry and his committee with Islamist background has led to some of the most controversial articles including prohibiting any Egyptian with dual nationalities to ever run for president even in the case he/she gives up their second nationality.
These moves SCAF have disintegrated the unity of the nation and every party till this date is suffering from the clash of all factions among themselves and against SCAF. The Referendum results which consolidated the power of the Military Junta by public vote have effectively killed the Egyptian revolution at its birth with the power momentum of the revolution shifting from Tahrir towards the military junta by the will of the people who succumbed to SCAF declarations that they want to hasten the transitional period.
In reality, referendum results extended the period from a supposedly 6 months SCAF earlier declared to a minimum of year and half according to the latest SCAF communiqué.
Egyptians, who usually have religious tendencies especially in the past 2 decades when it became quite prevalent, voted for a “Yes” which led to them swallowing bait that was set to divert the powers of the revolutions into factions and giving SCAF a much needed legitimacy to control the fate of the revolution.  However, the result of this referendum was not a declaration of complete dominance over revolution as SCAF hoped it to be since it led to further skirmishes between the revolutionaries and SCAF from that date and onwards.

Deception

SCAF declared numerously that they stand on equal distance from all parties and groups in the Egyptian political life, yet their actions have shown that they allowed more space for Islamist forces like Salafis fundamentalist and Ikhwan (Muslim Brotherhood) more than they did for Liberals, Leftists and other groups. The Committee that formulated the 9 articles for the referendum was comprised mainly of the Islamist sympathizer Tarek El Bishry and Muslim Brotherhood leader Sobhy Saleh to be in control of a committee whose decisions and declaration will affect the future of Egypt certainly seemed fishy for most Egyptians especially with limited background about constitutional laws.
This has reinforced the truth of the theory that the Military Junta forged a deal with Islamists to allow them to control the Parliament in favour of leaving the president’s position to other forces that SCAF can coordinate with.
Furthermore, after the vote for “YES” in the March 19th referendum about 9 articles to be added to the old constitution. SCAF found them falling in their own trap and found out that it’s not logical to reissue the 1971 constitution and adding those 9 articles to it without committing a constitutional violation.
Therefore, they decided to cancel the 1971 constitution and decided to use the 9 articles they have submitted for voting in the referendum while adding another “54 articles” and announced in what they called a “constitutional declaration” to the already voted for 54 and thus rendering the controversial referendum completely useless since the Egyptians never had the chance to review those 54 articles and vote for them In a “Yes” or “NO” .
The deception was fully revealed when the truth about the real duration of the transitional period became obvious to everyone that it’s not going to be 6 months as originally announced by SCAF but not less than 18 months and counting. However they promised to hand all their authority to an elected president by June 30th 2012. We have to wait and see if this will realize that or not.

Abuse of Power

SCAF have announced numerously that they as the interim rulers of Egypt will never resort to force against Egyptians. In reality , force was used in several occasions to the extent of brutality against protestors for whereby Central security forces belonging to the police joined forces with Military police units to crush most protests in Tahrir and other areas like Maspero and Kasr El einy.
During a Coptic Christians protests near the state national TV building a huge number of military troops backed by armoured vehicles rushed through the protestors and ran them over killing and wounding dozens of civilians.
A similar incident took place at Mohamed Mahmoud Street located nearby Tahrir square only without the armoured vehicles, this time live bullets as well as shotgun slugs were fired at some protestors and a third one at the gates of the Prime ministry offices all of which resulted in bloodshed.
Scenes of a women being dragged, kicked, stampeded, dress was torn and her bra shown on camera sparked a world – wide condemnation of a Military Junta that is losing control and resorting to violence to overshadow a catastrophic failure in handling the transitional period post revolution in Egypt.
The Abuse of power exercised by SCAF is not just a physical one, but a political one. Being the supreme authority in the transitional period and the acting interim president, SCAF have abused the political powers of their position immensely. They have issued controversial laws against Protests and the right for sit-ins and demonstrations. Also, tried to manipulate the way constitution is written by issuing what is known to be “Supra-constitutional” or articles.
The articles were fine theoretically in order to protect the country from any fascist or religious tyranny through democracy, but they included 2 articles that grants the army some unprecedented powers politically and rendering them being a separate entity from the state or in other words “A state within the state”.

Tyranny

Over 12,000 civilians have been detained and been sent to trial in front of military tribunals which is against the constitution and international human rights laws. While acknowledging the fact that most of these civilians were detained during raids targeting smugglers, illegal weapons traders and thugs, a good number of those detained were activists and rebels who were caught during the clashes between Military police or have been detained from their homes and sentenced to prison through military tribunals.
Among those detainees are prominent bloggers like Maikel Nabil who was sentenced for 2 years in military prison for publicly criticizing SCAF leaders in his online blog. Also, Alaa Abdel Fattah , a famous blogger who was imprisoned before during Mubarak’s era in 2005 and now found himself being accused on instigating violence against SCAF during the Maspero massacre that resulted in the killing of dozens of Copts and injuring hundreds. Abdel Fattah was released temporarily after media pressure but will face charges but  dozens  others still facing charges..
Other forms of tyranny were demonstrated in the infamous case of “Virginity tests” that were administered to many girls / women who detained during a raid to clear the Tahrir square on March 2011. These cases were initially denied by SCAF categorically, then later under pressure from the victims they were acknowledged and the army apologized for what they called a “mistake”.
Furthermore, accusing rebels in Tahrir and other squares all over Egypt of treason and working for foreign powers with hidden agendas was almost a daily declaration in the past few months from SCAF spokesmen.
The last chapter of the tyrannical acts was on December 29th 2011 when Police backed by Military forces and few judges raided 17 NGOs offices located in Cairo in search for evidence of illicit foreign funding for these NGOs. The move resulted in a worldwide condemnation and press statements against SCAF.
The signs of tyrannical rule are still evident in SCAF actions and they have a long way to prove and clear their already tainted reputation in the upcoming months before they hand the country to civilian rule according to their own declaration.

Fear Mongering

Since SCAF seized power in the name of the revolution, fear mongering became the daily diet in the state owned TV and press. The fear of the economic collapse have been preached throughout the media since day one and in all fairness it became a self-fulfilling prophecy due to the actions and policies of SCAF as well as those of the rebels. The economic status of Egypt is far from comfortable now with the Stock market loosing 200 Billion Egyptian Pounds equivalent to 33 Billion dollars with Egyptian national reserve down by 39% in the past 10 months.
The fear mongering of a presumed plot and conspiracy against Egypt have been mentioned by SCAF officers and state owned media incessantly for months. However, the details of that plot were never revealed to the public and the general speeches of SCAF directly or through their communiqué’ just states that there is a master plan to destroy Egypt integrity and unity forged by rival countries and enemies with any evidence or details.
Moreover, regardless of the existence of a plot or not against Egypt, it can’t be worse than the reckless political actions of SCAF in the past months which have led that these conspiracies becoming self-fulfilling prophecies.
The internal disputes, sectarian violence and the state of lawlessness in the country are to be blamed to a big extent on SCAF handling the country in the past period. Despite this fact, SCAF even being in power cannot be blamed entirely for these problems which they inherited due to the bad status of the country under Mubarak’s regime.
Yet, they have not made the correct choices in trying to resolve these critical issues with necessary prudence and tact.  On top of these issues is the security and the sectarian violence issues. As a matter of fact in many cases SCAF was a catalyst in these issues to their indecisiveness of their political actions.
Furthermore, Egypt possessing one of the most famous intelligence agencies in the world The Egyptian General Intelligence Services (GID) which rivals the most famous intelligence bureaus like CIA or MI6 shouldn’t have a problem dealing with national security issues like the ones facing Egypt at the moment.

Indecisiveness in political decisions

If we can sum up the 11 months history of SCAF being in power in one word, it will be certainly “Indecisiveness”. For an army of this size, power, capability and history, the last thing that any observer could have anticipated from them is this complete indecisiveness of actions and inability to pave the way for a new democratic Egypt through their contradicting and mostly controversial political resolutions.
Furthermore, their indecisiveness in handling the security issues have been very obvious starting from the attack and burning of the Church of Soul(Small village in Giza) and their inability to take actions against the violent attitude and crimes committed by some groups of the Salafis Islamists have opened the Pandora’s box to further cycles of violence in Egypt. The blocking of railways in Upper Egypt from certain groups as well as the siege of the Governor’s office in Aswan because Salafis decided that they don’t want a Christian governor in office.
Further incursions and provocations from mainly Islamists groups against government authorities and regular people were met with so much timidity and indecisiveness which was perceived as a message that it’s fine to do such acts. While the rebels in Tahrir and other activists were not met by the same courtesy from SCAF and hundreds have died in clashes with military police aside from thousands wounded. These imbalanced reactions from SCAF have given the impression to most observers that SCAF is not pro-revolution . Their actions intentionally or unintentionally are almost entirely counter revolutionary to say the least.
It’s noteworthy, that the scare tactics inherited from Mubarak regime era playbook have worked. The mainstream Egyptians are now furious with the actions of the rebels who also didn’t help to paint a good image of themselves in the past few months due to some impulsiveness from some of them.
In response, the people voted extensively for the Islamists parties who pledged allegiance to SCAF from day one for spite against some of liberals, leftists and activists demonstrating in Tahrir.
SCAF incessantly have called some of the rebels as rioters, bullies, vandals who are working with foreign agendas against the higher interests of Egypt. While some rebels may have committed some acts of violence recently, the core and majority of the rebels are still peaceful ones.
Retractions from press releases and declarations seem to be the main syndrome that SCAF is suffering from at the moment. An officer giving a press statement and then negated just the next day is quite common. All of these actions have lead to further confusion not just among politicians but the general public who can’t get heads or tail about what is the next move for SCAF.

Complacency and pertinacity

The two words can easily describe the state of denial that SCAF officers have suffered from in the past 10 months. Complacency and Denial on one hand that they are doing a fantastic job in handling the country transitional period to democracy and pertinacity that whatever decisions they are taking are the best for the national interest.
In all fairness, SCAF officer in many cases have held meetings with dozens of activists groups of different political affiliations and key political figures in an attempt to achieve a sort of consensus on their future political decision. They have formed the ill-fated “National accord” then “National dialogue” committees which were later replaced by the latest “Counselors committee”.
These attempts resulted in very limited successes and decisions from SCAF seemed in most cases to contradict the recommendations of all of these committees. This could be easily noticed in the laws regarding Elections, Labour laws, salaries and the ticking time bomb “The new constitution”
SCAF member and legal consultant Lieutenant General Mamdouh Shaheen statements and declarations , have done nothing throughout the past 11 months but expand the rift between the revolutionary powers and SCAF and SCAF insistence that he handles this very delicate position remains an unsolved enigma in the current political life in Egypt.
Furthermore, it has been notable that SCAF may have two colliding factions within the armed forces council, one has certain tendencies towards the Islamists or at least a sympathizer and the other is towards the more secular powers. If this is true, this rift within the ranks of SCAF can be disastrous. Despite SCAF in appearance look unified, the conflicting declarations and statements throughout the past months can indicate otherwise. Struggles within the council will only have the worst consequences for the country’s future.
In conclusion , all of the above resulted in almost all political powers are pushing on daily basis that SCAF would leave office and hand the power to civilians very shortly if not Immediately . Everyone is in agreement that the longer they stay in power, the more mistakes or Sins will be committed and the army’s old good reputation will be tarnished forever.
Yet the problem remains, that most of the solutions provided by politicians are quite impractical and to a great extent most of the activists are still young and politically inexperienced to provide viable solutions to get Egypt out of its current political turmoil.
Solutions like handing the power to the now Islamists dominant parliament is not practical and can lead to further negative consequences without having a constitution at hand limiting the powers of that parliament from taking the country toward theocratic dictatorship similar to the Iranian model.
Without a clear statement of the Civil/secular nature of the country in a newly written constitution , handing power now to the parliament or any forces that doesn’t believe in the accords on human rights, civility of the Egyptian state will be a highway to hell for Egypt’s future and the future of the middle east.
Muslim Brotherhood and El Nour party recent declarations and press statement are alerting and not promising at all in most cases, that one would wonder what they will actually do when they are in charge of the country.
SCAF maybe despite all the horrendous political sins committed in the past period is the lesser of two evils until a consensus on a modern democratic and civil constitution is set as SCAF vowed numerously to do.

As much it is essential for Egypt brighter future that SCAF should leave power as soon as possible, it’s essential as well that they pave the way for modern democratic state and not a theocracy that they paved the way for till this point. Till then they have to stay to rectify the results of the seven deadly sins they committed.

The Long and Winding Road for Democracy in Egypt Part 2

 

Part 2: End of peaceful nature of the Egyptian revolution?

 

Unfortunately, the Egyptian revolution which has been a beacon for the liberty of the oppressed nations in the 21st century and fighting tyranny by peaceful means has now slipped into a dark abyss of violence from the authorities and counter violence.
The unprecedented scenes of violence starting from March 2011 all the way to December all over Egypt, have really crippled the slow and stumbling steps  towards establishing a democratic system in the country.  The violence that erupted from the burning of a church in a village of Sol in Giza last March followed by sectarian clashes in many urban and rural areas, have slowly overshadowed the peaceful nature of the Egyptian revolution that was applauded by the world during the initial 18 days.


During those initial peaceful days that resulted in ex President Mubarak stepping down from office, peace prevailed despite the use of force from the old regime forces against the demonstrations mainly on the 28^th of January (Day of Fury) and 2^nd of February 2011 (Battle of the Camel)
However, that looks like history. What followed was mayhem. Particularly; February 28^th, March 9^th, April 8^th , May 15^th (Storming Israeli and Saudi embassies) May 28^th , July 23^rd , September 9^th , October 9^th (Maspero’s Copts massacre) , November 19^th (Mohamed Mahmoud St. massacre) and last but not least December 16^th (Kasr El Ainy battle).
All of these incidents happening only in Cairo created a big question mark on the peaceful nature of the Egyptian revolution. The total number of injuries and deaths after the ousting of Mubarak would almost match those who died in the first days of the revolution if not surpass them already.
The violent quelling of the initially peaceful protests mainly by activists and Cops have turned the entire body of the revolutionaries against the Supreme Council of the armed forces who were hailed as heroes in the beginning for protecting the revolution. are are now considered by the rebels as the villains.
The Supreme council of Armed Forces (SCAF) despite being a major player and decisive factor in the ousting of Mubarak, have played a negative role in instigating some of the violence. The onus is on bad decisions taken by SCAF during their 10 month rule of Egypt.
The sluggishness in taking important and decisive decisions of holding trials to the old regime key figures and the murderers of the protestors during the first 18 day was also part of the reason of the growing anger amidst the rebels.
The continuous state of denial from SCAF and rejecting the involvement of their troops in the clashes that lead to thousands of wounded and killed rebels, have angered even the most ardent SCAF supporters and left them alienated to a great extent. The sheer brutality and draconian methods of the Military Police and Central security forces (CSF) has created a state of total distrust within the ranks of the rebel all over Egypt.
The Rebels will not stand down till SCAF announces that they will relinquish power, something that SCAF promised to do only after an elected president will be in office and that will not be before June 3oth 2012.

Despite all the above, the blame for the escalating violence cannot be pointed solely towards SCAF. Any reasonable analyst will figure out that the source of violence can be dispersed on several levels that include the following parties responsible for this escalation:

1-      SCAF:

As the country supreme leader during the transitional period, the political, social and economic decisions of SCAF had a negative impact on the stability of the Egyptian society. Their political decisions were far from revolutionary and managed to keep the old regime political system as much as possible.

Furthermore, the evident lack of security in several Egyptian cities and districts has negatively affected the daily lives of the average Egyptian and in turn the flow of investments and tourism that was expected to happen after the revolution. Moreover, the violent responses from their Military police against the mostly peaceful protestors and the bloody quelling of protests committed by some of the officers as well as the endless stream of military tribunals and arrests of activists have alienated all the rebels from them. These tribunals have arrested and tried over 12000 Egyptians according to the latest reports most of them were thugs captured during raids. However, a significant chunk of them were political activists who were captured and tried like Maikel Nabil (Received 2 year sentence) and Alaa abdel Fattah (Still on trial) among dozens more.

SCAF have effectively proven the lack of political awareness, prudence or strategy to stabilize the country and fulfill the dreams of most Egyptians who dreamt of a better future after the revolution. However, the alternative of SCAF is not evident now and their presence in power during transitional period may still be the best of all evil alternatives since they are the last organized institution on the land.

2-      Mubarak Loyalists:

They are old regime loyalist who are still in power or have the authority and money to fund all the anti-revolutionary movements starting from the infamous assault on the rebels during the first 18 days on the February 2^nd 2011 (Battle of the Camel) all the way to their physical, material attempts to kill, injure, discredit the rebels in every possible way.

They resort to violence sometimes or propaganda against the rebels on National TV and their own private TV networks. They are still one of the most organized anti-revolutionary group and many of them are concealed within the ranks of the pro-revolutionary ones. Due to the current mayhem in the Egyptian streets and public opinion they are gaining ground that they didn’t think that they would ever win again after the revolution.

Despite the failure of most of them as candidates in the previous two rounds of parliamentary elections, they are still operating successfully on the ground and managed to cause turbulences in the political scene against the rebels. Their ability to hire thugs and cause mayhem during any revolutionary demonstrations or protests has been proven time and again.

SCAF surprisingly, turned their back on the actions of the loyalists despite of many declarations that some of the old regime figures are under investigations but SCAF till this moment didn’t pinpoint who is behind all the funding and organized violence produced by that group.  Mubarak loyalists still represent a clear and present danger on the path for democracy in Egypt.

3-      The Rebels:

Puritan Rebels sacrificed everything to reach their goals in this revolution including their body parts and their own lives, yet the lack of coordination and common acceptable goal have made themquite spontaneous and sometimes rebels without a cause in the eyes of the public. The original puritan peaceful groups have been infiltrated by more seemingly violent radical leftists and anarchists groups who don’t seem to follow any logical path in their demands and sometimes dictate unreasonable demands to SCAF and all Egyptians in the name of the revolution.

The collision of such groups with the security forces and SCAF was inevitable since they occupy the streets, forward their demands and insist that they are met without negotiations. This method is neither acceptable by SCAF or a large spectrum of the public opinion seem to accept.

These actions have manifested negatively on the results of the rebel candidates in the Parliamentary elections with only very few seats won compared to the more organized conservative Freedom and Justice Party of Muslim Brotherhood and radical El Nour party of the Salafis fundamentalists. Even the rebels actions have affected the other liberal blocs candidates like the Egyptian Bloc or Al Thawra Mostamera (The Revolution Continues) bloc. The last two were misjudged about being completely supportive of some of the mayhem caused by the anarchists within the rebels ranks and paid a hefty price in the election results.

The path of the rebels now is filled with obstacles to achieve any tangible results due to the lack of leadership or unified goals. No longer the words “Peaceful, Peaceful” chanted during the demonstrations have the same affect on the ears of the public opinion since some of the rebels were already involved in acts of violence. Also, SCAF propaganda machine have managed to taint all of them as being violent rioters instead of peaceful rebels . Their reputation is at stake at the moment and without a unified front and a clear message to the public opinion they will likely to fail in their aim of achieving their entire goals for change. The rebels must adopt a new strategy in order to gain the lost ground in the hearts of the public and keep the loose cannons among them checked.

4-      Islamists:

Be that Muslim Brotherhood or Fundamentalists like Salafis parties like El Nour. Islamists didn’t keep their hands clean from the violence that erupted after the revolution. In fact, they were the first to use violence after the revolution targeting the moderate Sufi shrines and other places of Sufi worship.

Furthermore, the Coptic Christians have suffered from physical violence that resulted in killing of some copts and burning of 2 churches for the first time in Egyptian modern history on the hands of the Salafis group. These groups didn’t just resort to physical violence but also hate speech in some satellite TV channels operated by them and mainly funded by countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE.

The violence incitement and media propaganda orchestrated by the Salafis leaders against Copts and liberals took a harsher form during the elections with some Copts being prevented from voting in the Elections in the governorate of Fayoum by Salafis groups.

Amazingly, SCAF have kept their eyes shut throughout the violence committed by these groups and never attempted to apply the law on them as much as they do to the liberal and activists in general. Islamists were the first to instigate the violence in streets post the revolution and managed to be a bully to all liberal powers without any sort of law-abiding except siding with SCAF politically to serve their own agenda.

Reports of coercion and violence they practiced during the elections in many districts while they are still not in power can only be an indicator what they are willing to do to maintain their authority while they are in power and form the government.

5-      Egyptian Media:

Egyptian private TV stations and media may have played a great and positive role in the years preceded the revolution in spreading political awareness and democratic values in the Egyptian society thus paving the way for the glorious revolution to take place on the Jan25th 2011. However, starting from the days that followed the ousting of the former president the media shift to sensationalism and adopting an extreme and irrational political view was evident.

The sensationalism factor became the dominant one in most of the political TV shows including very prominent TV hosts and shows. In most cases, the hosts of such shows had hard time separating their professional duties from their own personal views and feelings. That result is further dismay and confusion of the Egyptian public.

Programs either adopted a hardcore pro-revolution apologist view or a hard core pro-SCAF or old regime apologist view. The truth and objectivity could be hardly noticed while incitements for civil unrest and violence could be easily heard or watched during the course of such daily programs that were watched by millions.

The apologists for the rebels, Islamists, loyalist or SCAF would go all the way to prove their theories with mostly half-truth or distorted ones at best. It was common during the past months that the public Egyptian TV to incite violence against protestors time and again and called for what the names as “honourable citizens” to fight against the rebels in Tahrir in the name of stability of the country and economic growth.

The negative role of most media outlets and those non-traditional ones like Social media network have led to further sense of paranoia and division in the Egyptian society. Calls for attacking military officers, police as well as other opposing factions can be easily traced on Facebook, Twitter and other social media outlets used by the Egyptian youth. Rumours about the military, rebels, loyalists, etc.. are like a daily diet for all the users of such network who find themselves sometimes entangled in a web of lies they partly created themselves.

A call for reason and good judgment from all parties involved in official and non-official media is a must now in order for Egypt to pass through this critical phase as the damage is already done and now it must be rectified.

6-      Egyptian public

Now this maybe a surprise to some, but every able bodied Egyptian has a shared responsibility for the current state of affairs of the country. They have chosen either to back SCAF blindly and done that in the March 19^th Constitution reform referendum without knowing the consequence of voting for “Yes” which resulted in all the mess Egypt is witnessing now. Some of them gave way to shared rumours and innuendos either about SCAF or Rebels and tarnishing the reputation of both without full knowledge of the details.

The Egyptian public was too eager to rip the fruits of the revolution and believed that everything will be fine just by ousting the former dictator Mubarak. They exchanged numbers of the presumed wealth of the former regime and brought their calculators to check their own portion. Most wanted an increase in their wages and immediate improvement in their life standard and ignoring that the revolution is a first step in doing that but they will not achieve it except through more years of hard work and dedication to the country.

The majority of Egyptians kept accusing the rebels of receiving foreign funds, questioned their motives daily and even voted against their candidates in the parliamentary elections. All of which consequently that led to a more violent response from within the rebels directed towards everyone. The public is not willing to check facts or news they receive before spreading them like cancer and believing that they are unquestionable facts. Most are willing to believe what SCAF announces in their periodical media declarations and press conferences without questions.

The passiveness of another chunk of Egyptian public is also adding complications to an already complicated situation. Those who couldn’t care less to vote in the elections as if the future of Egypt is not already at stake. Those who vote for spite against rebels for radical Islamists who already had a long dark history of committing atrocious terrorist and violent acts against Egypt have all added to fueling hatred and violence in Egypt.

In conclusion, the vicious circle of violence fueled by the all the above is not likely to end without unrelenting efforts from all parties to give way to a democratic process that features no losers or victors. Meaning every single Egyptian must understand that the very fabric of the Egyptian society is on the verge of corrosion and the endless mindless violence from SCAF, Rebel, etc.. will only postpone if not annihilate the chances of creating a true democratic Egypt in the near future.

Egyptians are in a very critical transitional point of history where every able bodied Egyptian is responsible for the safety of this country for this generation and the future ones. The draconian old methods of SCAF must cease now as well as the rebels need to indulge with the rest of the powers in a political process that saves country from falling further in the abyss they created.

Egypt is on a crossroad that leads either to further violence or a democratic society and a model to follow in the turbulent Middle East.

The Long and Winding Road for Democracy in Egypt

 

Part 1: The Balance of Power 

It’s been once a common saying that a true democracy in Egypt might be as a possible as a human landing on Mars, the possibility was always there but the obstacles always outweighed the implantation of that dream. The obstacles for that goal can always be found in the political, cultural and social level throughout the past century and moving on towards the 21^st century the situation never proved any better except on marginal matters.  An implementation of a Russia’s Vladimir Putin’s like democracy was to be the highest extent of common Egyptian hopes for a scent of democracy.
Then, the Armageddon of January 25^th Revolution took place and swept the entire country. A major protest organized mainly by Upper and upper middle class youth using social media networks like Facebook , Twitter and word of mouth resulted in the most extraordinary event in recent Middle Eastern history and possibly the world since the fall of Berlin wall and the beginning of the post cold war era. The influence of the Tunisian revolution on its Egyptian counterpart cannot be denied. As the brave Tunisians who paid their lives for freedom have paved the way and acted as a catalyst for an already boiling Egyptian population comprised of mostly youth suffering from unemployment, poverty, oppression and marginalization in the social and political life.
Ironically, the call for the January 25^th was not from a marginalized or poverty stricken group of the youth, on the contrary it was the upper and upper middle class highly educated Egyptians who decided to make the move and seize a historical opportunity and formula already proved successful in a another Arab North African country to achieve the long awaited change. The status quo of a 30 year rule of Mubarak was never tolerated by a younger more educated, more travelled and ambitious youth who decided to make their own fate with their own hands. This movement was not a product of just an impetuous act of angered young Egyptians; it was preceded by a long list of protests, sit-ins and civil disobedience acts that stretched from Alexandria in the north of the country all the way to Aswan nearby the borders of Sudan since 2004. Civil rights groups and activists like Kefaya (Enough) 6^th of April and The Egyptian movement for change , Mohamed El Baradei, George Ishak among many others relatively obscure groups have supported the call for January 25^th protest under the slogan “Bread, Freedom, human dignity”.


It goes without saying, that some official opposition parties as well as the Muslim Brotherhood group didn’t support the move and called for cancelling or boycotting it to avoid civil disturbances according to their own beliefs pre – January 25^th. After the resounding success of the first protest which was met by extreme measures and brutality from the Ministry of Interior and their strong arm The Central Security Force (CSF) All the organizers of the first day of the revolution vowed to return for another day set to be January 28^th with more massive calls for a full fledged revolution on the internet and all media outlets which has been called “Friday of Fury”.
Not till blood was being spilt everywhere in several major cities and the police declared their withdrawal from Tahrir square and other major cities’ squares, that both the Ikhwan , Salafis (Radical Islamic fundamentalist groups) decided to join forces with the Liberal and leftist forces who paid the toll of the killings , heavy beating and tortures exercised on them by the notorious Ministry of Interior.
The violence against the rebels on January 28th was unmatched in modern Egyptian history with hundreds killed and thousands wounded by CSF and police forces who used extremely violent methods in an attempt to quell the rebellion and make an example of those brave souls. All that brutality was never enough to contain the purist enthusiasm that drove those young men and women and have been accordingly transferred to older generation rebels who joined forces when they saw.


The 18 days of revolution have demonstrated a unified ideology under the banner of liberty and freedom of all Egyptians of all religions and social ranks. Those 18 days seemed to be good to be true as clashes started to occur just a few weeks in smaller villages by now openly functioning Islamic groups mostly adhering to the Wahhabi doctrine locally known in Egypt as Salafis. The result of the clashes was the burning and tearing down of a local church in small village in Giza.
The incident have overshadowed a lot of the sense of unity that was felt by every Egyptian but still the implications of this incident have restored a sense of paranoia within the already heart-broken Copts who thought that the revolution will end such mindless attacks by extremist groups. In a matter of a few days the so called Salafis initiated an unprecedented rise as if they appeared from an obscure cave. Started with meetings in cities like Suez, Port Said and Alexandria then went on gradually to become a strange phenomenon in all cities.
Simultaneously,  in an unexpected and very controversial move, Supreme Council of Armed Forces SCAF released Aboud El Zomor (Sadat assassination mastermind) as well as other imprisoned members of EL Gamaa El Islamiya (The Islamic Group) a terrorist group that operated in Egypt for several decades. This was hailed as a victory and a green light in the eyes of the radical Fundamentalist Salafi group to practice politics openly.
The result of this SCAF stunt left a bad taste in the mouth of liberals and Copts coupled with the continuous meeting with Muslim Brotherhood leaders taking place on regular basis with SCAF generals. A strong sense prevailed that a deal was being cooked between the Military Junta and Islamists to facilitate their rise in power in exchange for the military to keep their impressive privileges. These impressive privileges of the army have been enjoyed for decades since 1952 and especially during Mubarak’s 3 decades rule.  These consecutive actions have shocked the Coptic and liberal community in Egypt as well as the mainstream Egyptians who thought that the SCAF have turned their heads away against violations from the rising Salafis movements.
While similar clashes have occurred between extremists and Copts in certain rural areas, the hugely controversial referendum of March 19^th which gave the Egyptians a choice between modifying the old constitution of 1971 with already proposed amendments of the ousted President Mubarak which limited the presidency terms to 2 as well as curbing certain unlimited powers that every Egyptian President enjoyed since 1952 coup’d’état . The other alternative would be the rejection of these of amendments without giving a viable alternative for those who say “NO”.
Majority of Egyptians fearful for their future and already badly affected by the economic strains of the aftermath of the revolution decided under pressure of daily life strains and government media endorsement to vote for “Yes”. While most of the intellectuals, Liberals and revolutionary powers decided to vote for “No”.
Prior to the referendum voting the Islamists groups spread a rumour that those who say “no” are forfeiting the possibility of implementing the Islamic Shaaria laws because secular powers want to remove the 2^nd amendment in the Egyptian constitution which states that the principles of Islamic Shaaria are the main source for jurisdiction in Egypt. The last part was a complete farce and a rumour spread by Muslim Brotherhood and Salafis who benefited from the endless indifference of SCAF towards their activities. In less than fortnight they became the starts of TV shows and introducing their extremist views in public freely for the first time in Egyptian history.
Many of those TV shows were actually liberal but somehow their initial presence drew a lot of audience and controversy which led to many more presumably liberal anchors to host them in their shows for more public viewing and higher ratings. Despite this a good percentage were appalled by the presence of extremists propagating what they believe as the correct for Islam something most Muslims in the world don’t share with them.
Quickly, ascended the Islamist groups and Muslim Brotherhood on the stairs of power and their ultimate show of force was protesting against the supra-constitutional guarantees proposed by SCAF as  a stipulation of freedoms and human/rights in any upcoming new Constitution. The Salafi groups backed by Muslim brotherhood joined forces to curb the Liberal and revolutionaries in Tahrir square on the 29^th of July 2011 packing over 1 million men and women from all over Egypt as a protest against that SCAF proposal and using the Constitutional declaration of SCAF in march as an excuse and a road map for all parties to follow.
The million man march was a resounding success for radical conservative groups who planned it carefully and spent millions of pounds and dollars to organize massive number of buses bring fundamentalist minded groups from all over Egypt.
The impacts of this march was also shocking since for the first time, the average Egyptian public witnessed the ability of Islamists to group and protest. Some of the worst sectarian slogans were posted during the protests and the impacts on Christians were also very negative. This march may have caused a delay in announcing the supra-constitutional which liberals and all other rebels demanded in order to preserve the Secular (Civil) nature of Egypt.
Now the Tahrir revolutionaries found themselves after being glorified by the mass media and people generally domestically and internationally, demonized by the Governmental media and particularly Egyptian national TV controlled by SCAF. The shift of the attitude of the masses towards Tahrir started to be more prevailing especially after SCAF called 6^th of April leftist movement as perpetrators and associated them with non-NGO organizations that receive foreign funding and training the first of which the group categorically denied.
The irony is that SCAF have turned their back against some already certified incidents of foreign funding to Islamists groups as well as those Anti-revolutionary groups (loyalists) who believe that the old regime was better, their most famous is “Ehna Asfeen Ya Rayes” Group meaning “We are sorry Mr. President” referring to ousted president Mubarak.
Later the General attorney declared that they uncovered some illegal funds in a bank account related to the group and frozen it.  But still their sudden appearances from time to time in certain protests is a big mystery and it’s likely that the group have more than one funding source in the past few months. Their organized sit- ins in Heliopolis and Abbassia district show a more organized and funded capability that these groups care to announce.
It was evident to all analysts that the Liberal powers in Egypt after the revolution seemed more shattered than the religious ones and that have been proven by the incessant protests mostly disorganized every Friday on Tahrir square. These endless million man marches (hardly reaching that number in most cases) have alienated quite a big chunk of the mainstream Egyptians who are not affiliated with any ideology or parties and these Egyptians represent a large majority.
Unfortunately the liberals divided into several factions of their own including capitalists, rebels, anarchists and leftists. Each group with had their own agenda and unique view of what should be done in the next phase. There first one believed that waiting for the elections and preparing for it is the suitable solution for this turbulent stage while the last 3 continued their almost weekly if not daily protests all over the country in an effort to curb SCAF authority and establish a quick transformation for civil rule.
Some of those groups acted as a loose cannon sometimes and were not less leathal to the country stability than Muslim Brotherhood and fundamentalist group with the distinction that they only needed a civil rule unlike the Islamists powers that wish to transfer the country to more religious oriented or Theological governance. The Liberals remain the core revolutionaries and a major player in the country political decision due to their ability to gather a large number of youth and middle class activists and non–activists in a short number of time to their almost weekly Friday protest in Tahrir square and Similar squares in major Egyptian cities.
However Liberals run the risk of being overshadowed by the more funded and Islamists groups who usually practice their protest from a political and& ideological point of view than the puritan Liberal revolutionaries who have tended to be more chaotic in the public eye recently especially during the clashes of Tahrir on Nov18th night and the days to follow just.
They are still hardcore revolutionaries but still not organized or politically experienced enough to attract a mass support like they received in the earlier months of the revolution when the public generally was fed up in the now defunct National Democratic Party and have supported any move by the rebels to take it down in favour of a more just and stable political system.
However, this gradually changed after the rebel’s disunity was quite obvious to regular Egyptians with over 180 different revolutionary groups and alliances from within the Tahrir rebels, each almost have their own point of view and their own message. All these of these mixed messages have made the general public quite annoyed with the continuous sit-ins and protests in Tahrir organized by these groups.
With the current economic crisis in Egypt and with Egypt national reserve dropping 39% in the past 9 months due to lack of foreign currency and the huge drop in tourism revenues , the Tahrir groups have alienated themselves gradually from public and failed to deliver the message of development to the average Egyptian lately. However, they still have the moral ground that they achieved by paying their own lives and blood in attempt to change Egypt for the better.
On the other side of the equation, remain a significant amount who are actually loyalists to the old regime locally known as “Felool” which in Arabic stands for “remnants” of the old regime and those believed that things would be better under Mubarak or a similar regime than they would be under any revolutionary government. Those groups cannot be taken lightly since they have shown their strength aligning themselves with SCAF politics as well as any other political decisions aiming at restoring the old laws or maintain the older status quo.
This significant group (loyalists) cannot be categorized as liberal or conservative as they can be a mix of both. Also, they are comprised mainly of over 2 million ex-NDP members spread all over Egypt and those mainstream Egyptians who are not likely in most cases have any political affiliations and were never really interested in politics in the past decades.
It’s worth mentioning, that a significant number of business owners and wealthier Egyptians have supported the views of these groups through the past months. This is due to the strong feeling of overburden of the aftermath of the revolution on their businesses and interests. That group cannot be taken out of the equation at all since they represent what has been known as the “Silent Majority” who hardly get involved in politics unless they feel the peril of what is going on in Tahrir and elsewhere on their daily lives.
Yet it remains to be seen how the interactions of the so called “Felool” or loyalists of the old regime will affect the democratization of Egyptian on the long run. As they have been accused by rebel forces of funding, supporting acts of violence, criminal offenses and  thuggery against the rebels in many cases. However, no official statement or court order have been issued in that regard and only some declarations of a massive investigations will take place by the Bureau of the General attorney Mr. Abdel El Mageed Mahamoud. But no indictments so far have been issued against these continuous acts.
Last but not least is the Supreme council of armed forced headed by Field Marshall Hussein Tantawi the Defense minister during Mubarak era.  SCAF is the De facto power in Egypt after former President Hosni Mubarak abdicated and handed over power to them on the 11^th of February 2011. They are the supreme council and effectively the supreme ruler of the land, they have the power to appoint and  change governments , issue laws and uphold the law. In short they are an All-in-1 supreme council or military Junta. The council was praised for their restraining ability in the earlier days of the revolution and for siding with the rebels against the former ousted president.
They were the ones who put pressure on Mubarak to relinquish power to save the country from total turmoil. However the long term interests of the revolution may collide with their own long term interests.
Since 1952 coup’ d’état, the army affiliated companies are deeply entrenched in the Egyptian economic activities and is said to control about 30% of the economy. These privileges cannot be easily given up especially it represents a major source of income which is used to cover the costs of renewing the army equipment on regular basis. The dilemma remains to be maintaining the current expenditures of the Army and modernizing it while curbing their role in political life without damaging either the strength of the army or the democratization process.
The strategic alliance with the USA and the Camp David peace treaty with Israel represent as non-negotiable National security matter that any government democratic or not , Islamist or not should abide with these guidelines that represents Egyptian foreign policy and military strategy for the past 33 years.  The Egyptian Army is still a bastion of stability in the Middle East region and will not allow any major changes to damage this status under any pretexts.
The collision of interests between Islamists who won significant percentage of the Egyptian elections first phase and SCAF can be foreseen by many as inevitable in the upcoming months. The former might be able to form a majority if Salafis and Muslim brotherhood insist on forming the government which is unconstitutional under the current declaration.
On the other hand, liberals who own most of the private sector businesses, Media and have strong influence in the social and cultural scene will not allow themselves to be ousted from the scene that easily and will fight to the bone to make share that Egypt secular/civil state is maintained and freedoms will be increased and guaranteed.
The loyalists who are comprised of different types of ideologically minded and non-ideologically minded Egyptians of all social ranks will not allow matters to stir away against their favour starting from business owners all the way to overpaid public servants under the previous regime.
Finally, the power struggle in Egypt will continue to dominate the scene for the upcoming months if not years till the Egyptians manage to establish a constitution which will appease all the power that be and those new emerging powers as well.  Despite all the struggles and upcoming challenges, the prospect of reaching a unanimity is still great under the pressure of general public who have been growing weary of the struggle that they believe have caused backlashes and counter-effects on their daily lives since the start of the revolution. The Military Junta, Liberals, Leftists, Pan-Arab Nationalists, Islamists and loyalists have no valid alternative than to concede some of their ambitions for the sake of the Egyptian national interest and for a democracy that can be a beacon to follow in a historically tyrannical Middle East.
Usually, they say a week is a long time in politics but in 2011 Egypt’s it’s an eternity.